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The Great Wall Street's avatar

Just seen this quote by Bill Miller on simplicity:

“For every company, there are a few key investment variables. The rest of the stuff is noise.”

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The Great Wall Street's avatar

Tencent is turning things around at $HUYA. In the most recent earnings report, $HUYA stated that the game distribution business is picking up, growing 137% year-over-year and 30% quarter-over-quarter.

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Johnny's avatar

Thank you for your articles, which are always highly competent and very interesting. I more or less shared your vision of the company, but lately, it seems that that about "no" competition is perhaps changing a bit. I read about several famous streamers leaving Huya to switch to Douyin. It seems that Huya can attract famous streamers only with high compensation, while Douyin does not need to pay such compensation because the significantly larger number of users on Douyin offers much greater monetization opportunities compared to Huya, even net of engagement payments. For example I found informations like this:

"Li Xiaolong, the founder of the game live-streaming guild Feijing Mutual Entertainment, also had to move from Huya to Douyin because he COULD NO LONGER MAKE MONEY on Huya, but he could on Douyin."

It seems to be more than a red flag. Or do you mean that I am seeing this incorrectly?"

You wrote that "I knew Huya was a legitimate company and I was familiar with many people who use their services." Do you perhaps have any additional information regarding what I wrote, in order to contrdict or confirm it?

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The Great Wall Street's avatar

Of course, Douyin is a major threat to Huya. I have no doubt that it is a much better business. But this investment was never about Huya being a great company. It was always about the cash stored in the company and the price Tencent was paying for it. What I’m saying is that people were treating Huya as if it were a complete fraud, and that’s not true. It’s a real company with a service that people actually use. Whether its market position deteriorates or not is a completely different question.

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Johnny's avatar

Thank you for your response!

I understand your point of view and your arguments: having bought at $2.50, you can certainly afford the privilege of considering the company from this perspective. Moreover, with the old dividends and the upcoming new dividend of $1.74/share, you have probably already recovered the price you paid. I, on the other hand, am forced to also consider whether the business is deteriorating significantly or if it is remaining stable and could continue to do so in the coming years (my average purchase price is $4). For this reason, I would like to delve deeper into whether and to what extent the business is deteriorating. Do you have any advice on where I can find detailed current

informations about the deterioration of the business? Thank you a lot for your great job!

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victsz's avatar

有趣的思路但并不重要

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